Epidemic forecast follies

Author:

Krapivsky P. L.,Redner S.

Abstract

AbstractWe introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing public-health restrictions when the epidemic is severe, and relaxing restrictions when the epidemic is waning. Our primary results are that different instances of an epidemic with identical starting points have disparate outcomes and each epidemic temporal history is strongly fluctuating.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Reference22 articles.

1. COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus (2023).

2. Bailey, N. T. A simple stochastic epidemic. Biometrika 37, 193–202 (1950).

3. Bailey, N. T. J. The mathematical theory of infectious diseases (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987).

4. Hethcote, H. W. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev. 42, 599–653 (2000).

5. Ridler-Rowe, C. On a stochastic model of an epidemic. J. Appl. Prob. 4, 19–33 (1967).

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