Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Abstract

Climate change is one of the significant factors influencing global species redistribution. As a result, a better understanding of the species' possible range change in future climate conditions is needed. Therefore, this study compiles global geographic occurrence data of a wild olive sub-species, Olea europaea subsp. cuspidate, and projected potential distribution models in current and future climate scenarios. This study using ensemble modeling predicted that the species will undergo a significant decrease in habitat suitability under future climatic conditions with a contraction ranging from ca. 41 and 42% under RCP4.5 2050 and to about 56 and 61% under RCP8.5 2070 for committee averaging and weighted mean, respectively. More specifically, there will be a decrease in habitat suitability in regions of the southeastern part of the United States in North America; coastal regions in South America; coastal regions in the majority of eastern Africa; coastal parts of Spain, France, Italy, and Greece in Europe; coastal parts of Yemen and Saudi Arabia; the southeastern parts of Pakistan and the southern part of China in Asia; and southwestern and eastern parts of Australia when compared to current habitat suitability. The results of this ensemble modeling could be extremely valuable in identifying cultivation hotspots for the effective restoration and protection of this olive lineage under future climatic conditions.