High Wind Speed Prevents the Establishment of the Disease Vector Mosquito Aedes albopictus in Its Climatic Niche in Europe

Abstract

Environmentally suitable habitats ofAedes albopictus(Ae. albopictus) in Europe are identified by several modeling studies. However, it is noticeable that even after decades of invasion process in Europe, the vector mosquito has not yet been established in all its environmentally suitable areas. Natural barriers and human-mediated transport play a role, but the potential of wind speed to explainAe. albopictus’absences and its inability to establish in its suitable areas are largely unknown. This study therefore evaluates the potential of wind speed as an explanatory parameter of the non-occurrence ofAe. albopictus. We developed a global ecological niche model with relevant environmental parameters including wind speed and projected it to current climatic conditions in Europe.Differences in average wind speed between areas of occurrence and non-occurrence ofAe. albopictuswithin its modeled suitable areas were tested for significance. A second global ecological niche model was trained with the same species records and environmental parameters, excluding windspeed parameters. Using multiple linear regression analyses and a test of average marginal effect, the effect of increasing wind speed on the average marginal effect of temperature and precipitation on the projected habitat suitability was estimated. We found that climatically suitable and monitored areas whereAe. albopictusis not established (3.12 ms-1 ± 0.04 SD) have significantly higher wind speed than areas where the species is already established (2.54 ms-1 ± 0.04 SD). Among temperature-related bioclimatic variables, the annual mean temperature was the most important variable contributing to the performance of both global models. Wind speed has a negative effect on the predicted habitat suitability ofAe. albopictusand reduces false-positive rates in model predictions. With increasing wind speed, the average marginal effect of annual mean temperatures decreases but that of the annual precipitation increases. Wind speed should be considered in future modeling efforts aimed at limiting the spread and dispersal ofAe. albopictusand in the implementation of surveillance and early warning systems. Local-scale data collected from fieldwork or laboratory experiments will help improve the state of the art on how wind speed influences the distribution, flight, and dispersal activity of the mosquito.