Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Kasus DBD di Kabupaten Jayapura Tahun 2014-2021

Abstract

Latar belakang: Demam berdarah dengue (DBD) merupakan salah satu masalah kesehatan di Indonesia, Kasus DBD  hampir ditemukan  sepanjang tahun kasus DBD di wilayah Indonesia terutama pada awal masa penghujan. Kasus DBD di Jayapura merupakan permasalahan kesehatan sejak ditemukan kasus ini di tahun 1979. Studi ini bertujuan menganalisis factor iklim dan kepadatan penduduk terhadap kejadian DBD di Kabupaten Jayapura Tahun 2014-2021.Metode: Studi analisis menggunakan data kasus DBD Tahun 2014-2021 dari Laporan Profil Kesehatan Kabupaten Jayapura. Data factor iklim menggunakan data Laporan Kabupaten Jayapura dalam Angka Tahun 2014-2022 dari BPS Kabupaten Jayapura. Data dianalisis secara deskriptif kemudian dilakukan analisis bivariat uji spearman. Analisis regresi multivariat menggunakan uji regresi linear untuk melihat seberapa besar pengaruh factor iklim dan kepadatan penduduk terhadap kejadian DBD di Kabupaten Jayapura.Hasil: hasil analisis statistik uji Rank Spearman menemukan adanya hubungan  faktor iklim curah hujan terhadap kasus DBD di Kabupaten Jayapura (p=0.04) dengan korelasi positif (r= 0,7). analisis menggunakan model regresi multivariat (regresi linear) ditamukan asosiasi faktor iklim curah hujan ꞵ=0,06; 95%CI (0,005-0,064); kelembaban ꞵ= 10,15; 95%CI(9,55-10,75); suhu ꞵ= 28,35; 95%CI (27,10-29,61), kecepatan angin ꞵ= terhadap kasus DBD. Ditemukan juga asosiasi kepadatan penduduk terhadap kejadian DBD dikabupaten Jayapura ꞵ=2,9; 95%CI (2,50-3,39). Hasil model persamaan  regresi linear multivariat Generalized Linear Models (GLM) adalah:   Y(Kasus DBD) = -1211,721 + 10,148*(Kelembaban) + 28,354*(Kecepatan angin) + 2,945*(Kepadatan Penduduk) + 0,0060*(Curah hujan).Simpulan: Faktor iklim curah hujan, kelembaban, suhu, kecepatan angin dan faktor kepadatan penduduk merupakan faktor penting yang berasosiasi dengan kejadian DBD dikabupaten Jajayapura. Mengetahui pola perubahan iklim dapat membantu dalam mencegah terjadinya kejadian luar biasa DBD di wilayah Kabupaten Jayapura. ABSTRACTTitle: The impact of climate change on Dengue Fever cases in Jayapura Regency from 2014 to 2021.Background: Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a health problem in Indonesia, especially during the early rainy season. DHF cases in Jayapura Regency have been a health concern since the first case was reported in 1979. This study aims to analyze the climate and population density factors associated with DHF occurrences in Jayapura Regency from 2014 to 2021.Methods: This analytical study used DHF case data from 2014 to 2021 obtained from the Health Profile Report of Jayapura Regency. Climate factor data were derived from the Jayapura Regency in Figures Report 2014-2022 by the Central Bureau of Statistics of Jayapura Regency. The data were analyzed descriptively and then subjected to bivariate analysis using Spearman's test. Multivariate regression analysis was performed using linear regression to assess the magnitude of the influence of climate and population density factors on DHF occurrences in Jayapura Regency.Results: The results of the statistical analysis using Spearman's Rank test found a significant relationship between rainfall and Dengue Fever (DF) cases in Jayapura District (p=0.04) with a positive correlation (r=0.7). The multivariate regression analysis (linear regression) revealed associations between rainfall (β=0.06; 95%CI 0.005-0.064), humidity (β=10.15; 95%CI 9.55-10.75), temperature (β=28.35; 95%CI 27.10-29.61), wind speed (β=), and DF cases. Additionally, an association between population density and DF occurrence in Jayapura District was found (β=2.9; 95%CI 2.50-3.39). The results of the multivariate Generalized Linear Models (GLM) regression equation are as follows: Y [DF cases] = -1211.721 + 10.148*[Humidity] + 28.354*[Wind speed] + 2.945*[Population Density] + 0.0060*[Rainfall].Conclusion: Climate factors such as rainfall, humidity, temperature, wind speed, and population density are important factors associated with DHF occurrences in Jayapura Regency. Understanding climate change patterns can help prevent DHF outbreaks in the Jayapura Regency area.