A Greater Share of Organic Agriculture in Relation to Food Security Resulting from the Energy Demand Obtained from Food—Scenarios for Poland until 2030

Abstract

In line with the assumptions of the European Green Deal, it is planned to allocate 25% of agricultural land to organic farming by 2030. However, the question arises: what share of organic farming and under what additional conditions is it able to feed the population of a given country? The aim of the article is to try to answer the above question for the example of Poland. In particular, the authors analyze: the problem of satisfying people’s nutritional needs, reducing food wastage, and finally the relationship between sustainable consumption and increasing the share of organic farming in Poland. Attention was also paid to possible potential changes in the agricultural land area with the growing share of organic farming. The proposed scenarios for the transition to organic farming concern the year 2030. We propose to increase the share in 20%, 40% and 60%, imposing them on changes in sustainable consumption of +/−25%, +/−50% and +/−75%. The available FAOSTAT (Statistic Data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) and Statistics Poland data from 2008–2018 were used for the analysis. The model scenario analysis showed that the total food demand will be met in most of the scenarios. It has also been shown that with a higher level of transition to organic farming, it becomes necessary to reduce food wastage. Changing the consumption style not only creates opportunities for a wider development of organic farming in Poland but can also generate free areas on arable land (e.g., even more than 26% of free area in the +/−75% scenario). This may create potential opportunities for their use in the production of consumer crops, but also in the protection of the natural and agricultural environment.