Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers

Abstract

Contemporary risk assessment makes reference to current world trends, whereby there is increased emphasis on safety. This paper has thus sought mainly to present new approaches to failure risk assessment where the functioning of a water distribution network (WDN) is concerned. The framework for the research involved here has comprised of: (a) an analysis of WDN failure in regard to an urban agglomeration in south-east Poland; (b) failure rate analysis, taking account of the type of a water pipe (mains, distribution, service connections (SC)) and months of the year, with an assessment of results in terms of criterion values for failure rate; (c) a determination—by reference to analyses performed previously—of the compatibility of experts’ assessments in terms of standards of failure and obtained results, through rank analysis; and (d) the proposing of a modified Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with implementation of an Analytical Hierarchy Process, to allow failure risk assessment for the WDN to be performed, on the basis of the calculated additive value of obtained risk. The analysis in question was based on real operating data, as collected from the water distribution company. It deals with failures in the WDN over a period of 13 years in operation, from 2005 to 2017.