Analysis of Long-Term Variations of Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Index over Zambia

Abstract

This study examines long-term spatial and temporal trends of drought characteristics based on the Standardized Precipitation Index at three different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months) over Zambia from 1981 to 2017. Drought characteristic conditions such as duration, severity, and intensity at monthly, seasonal, and annual levels were analyzed to investigate the drought patterns over Zambia. The results show a significant increase in drought events over the southwestern regions and a decrease over the northeastern regions. It is in this regard that two stations from different locations (southwest and northeast) were analyzed. The results show increasing trends of drought over Sesheke (southwest) and decreasing trends over Kasama (northeast). More drought impacts are felt over southern compared to northern areas, which poses a serious concern to both agriculture and hydrological industries over the drought-prone areas of Southern Zambia. However, the analysis further shows that droughts were more intense, persistent, and severe over the southwest, while moderate droughts were found in some few areas of Northeast Zambia. The Mann–Kendall test trend and slope indicated that both annual and seasonal drought have increased. However, drought increment at an annual level shows a low magnitude as compared to the seasonal level. This suggested the importance of evaluating drought at an interannual and seasonal time scale over Zambia. Specifically, the drought increased determinedly before 2010 and became erratic between 2010 and 2017 with considerable regional variation. Zambia experienced moderate to severe droughts during 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2006–2005, and 2015–2016, which resulted in serious damages to the environment and society. According to the findings of this study, it is suggested that the implications of drought can be managed by creating strategies and adaptation measures.