Study on the Spatial Heterogeneity of the Impact of Forest Land Change on Landscape Ecological Risk: A Case Study of Erhai Rim Region in China

Abstract

As an important ecological ecotone of water and land ecosystems, the lakeside is characterized by a variety ecosystem services and high vulnerability. Forest land is important in resolving the ecological risks of the lakeside area and building its ecological base. It is important to explore the effect of change in forest land on landscape ecological risk in the lakeside area, alleviate the contradiction between ecological protection and construction and development in the area, and realize sustainable development. The present study attempted to explore the spatial and temporal evolutionary features of forest land in the Erhai rim region from 2000 to 2020 using bivariate spatial autocorrelation and multi-scale geographical weighted regression (MGWR) models. The following are the findings of this investigation of the 2000–2020 period: (1) the forest land area in the region generally decreased, first increasing and then decreasing, and was mainly occupied by cultivated land and artificial surfaces; (2) the total landscape ecological risk in the region presented an upward trend, and medium- and higher-risk areas were the main risk areas, with the latter increasing; (3) the impact of forest land expansion and contraction intensity on landscape ecological risk exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The main forms of forest land change at different stages differed, and the impacts on landscape ecological risk were also different. Reasonable forest land expansion can effectively alleviate the growth in landscape ecological risk, whereas the shrinkage of forest land would aggravate the landscape ecological risk in the Erhai rim region. Moreover, the findings can offer reference for the exploration of ecological protection and coordinated optimization of economic development in Erhai Lake.