Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Four Lakes Basin on the Jianghan Plain, China

Abstract

Due to the complex ecological effects of the interactions between natural environmental evolution and anthropogenic interference, a series of longstanding environmental problems have severely exacerbated the vulnerability of watershed ecosystems. Landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment is suitable for exploring the extent of threats and the likelihood of adverse impacts to watershed ecosystems from multiple sources of risk. However, the specific LER and the role of diverse factors on LER in the Four Lakes Basin remain unclear. Hence, it is necessary to identify the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of LER and the drivers of their interactions. In this study, the variations and driving factors of LER in the Four Lakes Basin from 2000 to 2020 were evaluated. Landscape disturbance index was selected to establish the LER measurement method. Spatial autocorrelation and the standard deviation ellipse method were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in LER. To overcome the uncertainties in accurately assessing the interactions, we attempted to use the geographic detector model to quantitatively analyze the driving factors. The following results are indicated: (1) In the period from 2000 to 2020, the LER had spatially uneven distribution characteristics of low in the north-central and high in the east and south. The level of LER has been increasing. (2) The LER has characteristics showing significant spatial clustering distribution. However, the spatial convergence has diminished with time. (3) The development inclination of LER was different in the two stages. The first stage (2000–2010) showed diffusion, while the second stage (2010–2020) was concentrated to the northwest. (4) The two-factor enhancement of interactions between land use index and human disturbance (q2000 = 0.885, q2010 = 0.888, q2020 = 0.713) was the dominant factor influencing LER. This study can provide a theoretical reference for ecological restoration and promotion of ecosystem service functions in the Four Lakes Basin.