Detecting Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Patterns in Forest Fragmentation with a Forest Fragmentation Comprehensive Index (FFCI): Taking an Area with Active Forest Cover Change as a Case Study

Abstract

Forests play an irreplaceable role in preserving soil and water, as well as realizing carbon neutrality. However, logging and urban expansion have caused widespread forest fragmentation globally, resulting in biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. Therefore, it is a prerequisite to develop a comprehensive index for evaluating the degree of forest fragmentation to propose effective policies for forest protection and restoration. In this study, a forest fragmentation comprehensive index (FFCI) was constructed through principal component analysis (PCA) based on land-use data from 2000 to 2020 in Fujian Province, composed of five commonly used landscape metrics: patch density (PD), largest patch index (LPI), mean patch area (MPA), aggregation index (AI), and division. Then, the semivariogram function and moving windows method were employed to explore the scale effect and spatiotemporal variations of FFCI. The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to distinguish the spatial relationship of forest fragmentation, while the driving mechanisms were explored using the geographic detector (GD). The results show that the optimal scale to reflect forest fragmentation based on the semivariogram and moving window method was 3500 m. The proposed FFCI could explain more than 85% of the information for all landscape metrics, and the effectivity of FFCI was validated by urban–rural gradient and transect analysis. We also found that, despite having the highest forest coverage in China, Fujian Province has experienced severe forest fragmentation. High and medium fragmentation accounted for over 50% of all types of fragmentation, with decreasing trends in low and very low fragmentation and increasing trends in high fragmentation over time, indicating that the degree of forest fragmentation in the study area was aggravated over time. Moreover, the spatial distribution pattern of FFCI was mainly high–high clusters and low–low clusters, showing a decreasing trend year by year. The areas with high fragmentation were mainly distributed in the urban center of coastal cities, while the internal cities in western and central regions had a relatively low degree of fragmentation. Additionally, the spatial differentiation in the variation in FFCI was mainly influenced by elevation, slope, and nighttime light intensity. The superimposed impact of two factors on the variation in FFCI was greater than the impact of individual factors. These results provide an effective approach for assessing the degree of forest fragmentation and offer scientific support for mitigating forest fragmentation.