Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Droughts in China over the Past 61 Years Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Abstract

Based on the data of 2254 daily meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2021, this study calculated the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) of the national multi-time scale by using the FAO Penman–Monteith model to quantify the changes in dry and wet conditions. The Mann–Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis, and other methods were used to study the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of drought. The results showed: (1) In the past 61 years, there were obvious spatial and temporal differences in drought in China, and the interannual variation in drought severity in SPEI-1, SPEI-3, and SPEI-12 gradually decreased at a rate of 0.005/10a, 0.021/10a, and 0.092/10a, respectively. (2) The time point of dry and wet mutation was 1989 according to the MK mutagenicity test. (3) Wavelet analysis showed that the drought cycle on the annual scale and the seasonal scale was consistent, and the main period was about 30 years. (4) In the past 61 years, the drought intensity of different degrees in China has shown a weakening trend, and the drought intensity reached the highest value in 61 years in 1978, at 1836.42. In 2020, the drought intensity was the lowest, at 261.55. (5) The proportion of drought stations has shown a decreasing trend. The proportion of drought-free stations has fluctuated greatly, ranging from 42.12% to 89.25%, with 2020 being the highest. This study provides a scientific basis for further research on the causes and coping strategies of drought and is of great significance for strengthening China’s drought monitoring, early warning ,and adaptation capabilities.