7-Score Function for Assessing the Strength of Association Rules Applied for Construction Risk Quantifying

Abstract

There are several factors influencing the time of construction project execution. The properties of the planned structure, the details of an order, and macroeconomic factors affect the project completion time. Every construction project is unique, but the data collected from previously completed projects help to plan the new one. The association analysis is a suitable tool for uncovering the rules—showing the influence of some factors appearing simultaneously. The input data to the association analysis must be preprocessed—every feature influencing the duration of the project must be divided into ranges. The number of features and the number of ranges (for each feature) create a very complicated combinatorial problem. The authors applied a metaheuristic tabu search algorithm to find the acceptable thresholds in the association analysis, increasing the strength of the rules found. The increase in the strength of the rules can help clients to avoid unfavorable sets of features, which in the past—with high confidence—significantly delayed projects. The new 7-score method can be used in various industries. This article shows its application to reduce the risk of a road construction contract delay. Importantly, the method is not based on expert opinions, but on historical data.