TRFM-LS: Transformer-Based Deep Learning Method for Vessel Trajectory Prediction

Abstract

In the context of the rapid development of deep learning theory, predicting future motion states based on time series sequence data of ship trajectories can significantly improve the safety of the traffic environment. Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of AIS data, a trajectory time window panning and smoothing filtering method is proposed for the abnormal values existing in the trajectory data. The application of this method can effectively deal with the jump values and outliers in the trajectory data, make the trajectory smooth and continuous, and ensure the temporal order and integrity of the trajectory data. In this paper, for the features of spatiotemporal data of trajectories, the LSTM structure is integrated on the basis of the deep learning Transformer algorithm framework, abbreviated as TRFM-LS. The LSTM module can learn the temporal features of spatiotemporal data in the process of computing the target sequence, while the self-attention mechanism in Transformer can solve the drawback of applying LSTM to capture the sequence information weakly at a distance. The advantage of complementarity of the fusion model in the training process of trajectory sequences with respect to the long-range dependence of temporal and spatial features is realized. Finally, in the comparative analysis section of the error metrics, by comparing with current state-of-the-art methods, the algorithm in this paper is shown to have higher accuracy in predicting time series trajectory data. The research in this paper provides an early warning information reference for autonomous navigation and autonomous collision avoidance of ships in practice.