An Adaptive, Data-Driven Stacking Ensemble Learning Framework for the Short-Term Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation

Abstract

With the increasing integration of wind and photovoltaic power, the security and stability of the power system operations are greatly influenced by the intermittency and fluctuation of these renewable sources of energy generation. The accurate and reliable short-term forecasting of renewable energy generation can effectively reduce the impacts of uncertainty on the power system. In this paper, we propose an adaptive, data-driven stacking ensemble learning framework for the short-term output power forecasting of renewable energy. Five base-models are adaptively selected via the determination coefficient (R2) indices from twelve candidate models. Then, cross-validation is used to increase the data diversity, and Bayesian optimization is used to tune hyperparameters. Finally, base modes with different weights determined by minimizing the cross-validation error are ensembled using a linear model. Four datasets in different seasons from wind farms and photovoltaic power stations are used to verify the proposed model. The results illustrate that the proposed stacking ensemble learning model for renewable energy power forecasting can adapt to dynamic changes in data and has better prediction precision and a stronger generalization performance compared to the benchmark models.