Enhancing Container Vessel Arrival Time Prediction through Past Voyage Route Modeling: A Case Study of Busan New Port

Abstract

Container terminals are at the center of global logistics, and are highly dependent on the schedule of vessels arriving. Conventional ETA records from ships, utilized for terminal berth planning, lack sufficient accuracy for effective plan implementation. Thus, there is a pressing need for improved ETA prediction methods. In this research, we propose a novel approach that leverages past voyage route patterns to predict the ETA of container vessels arriving at a container terminal at Busan New Port, South Korea. By modeling representative paths based on previous ports of call, the method employs real-time position and speed data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to predict vessel arrival times. By inputting AIS data into segmented representative routes, optimal parameters yielding minimal ETA errors for each vessel are determined. The algorithm’s performance evaluation during the modeling period demonstrates its effectiveness, achieving an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of approximately 3 h and 14 min. These results surpass the accuracy of existing ETA data, such as ETA in the Terminal Operating System and ETA in the AIS of a vessel, indicating the algorithm’s superiority in ETA estimation. Furthermore, the algorithm consistently outperforms the existing ETA benchmarks during the evaluation period, confirming its enhanced accuracy.