Degradation or Restoration? The Temporal-Spatial Evolution of Ecosystem Services and Its Determinants in the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ESs) are irreplaceable natural resources, and their value is closely related to global change and to human well-being. Research on ecosystem services value (ESV) and its influencing factors can help rationalize ecological regulatory policies, and is especially relevant in such an ecologically significant region as the Yellow River Basin (YRB). In this study, the ecological contribution model was used to measure the contribution of intrinsic land use change to ESV, the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was applied to investigate the relationship between land use degree and ESV, and the geographical detector model (GDM) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were applied to reveal the impact of natural and socio-economic factors on ESV. Results showed that: (1) The total ESV increased slightly, but there were notable changes in spatial patterns of ESV in the YRB. (2) Land use changes can directly lead to ESV restoration or degradation, among which, conversion from grassland to forest land and conversion from unused land to grassland are vital for ESV restoration in the YRB, while degradation of grassland is the key factor for ESV deterioration. (3) According to GDM, NDVI is the most influential factor affecting ESV spatial heterogeneity, and the combined effect of multiple factors can exacerbate ESV spatial heterogeneity. (4) GWR reveals that NDVI is always positively correlated with ESV, GDP is mainly positively correlated with ESV, and population density is mainly negatively correlated with ESV, while positive and negative correlation areas for other factors are roughly equal. The findings can provide theoretical support and scientific guidance for ecological regulation in the YRB.