Prediction of Water Quality in Reservoirs: A Comparative Assessment of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approaches in the Case of Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Abstract

The effective management of surface water bodies, such as rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of water quality status. Altered precipitation patterns due to climate change may significantly affect the water quality and influence treatment procedures. This study aims to identify the most suitable water quality prediction models for the assessment of the water quality status for three water supply reservoirs in Toowoomba, Australia. It employed four machine learning and two deep learning models for determining the Water Quality Index (WQI) based on five parameters sensitive to rainfall impact. Temporal WQI variations over a period of 22 years (2000–2022) are scrutinised across 4 seasons and 12 months. Through regression analysis, both machine learning and deep learning models anticipate WQI gauged by seven accuracy metrics. Notably, XGBoost and GRU yielded exceptional outcomes, showcasing an R2 value of 0.99. Conversely, Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) demonstrated moderate accuracy with results hovering at 88% to 90% for water quality prediction across all reservoirs. The Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) and Willmott Index (d) showed that the models capture patterns well, while MAE, MAPE and RMSE provided good performance metrics for the RFR, XGBoost and GRU models. These models have provided valuable knowledge that can be utilised to assess the adverse consequences of extreme climate events such as shifts in rainfall patterns. These insights can be used to improve strategies for managing water bodies more effectively.