Trend and Attribution Analysis of Runoff Changes in the Weihe River Basin in the Last 50 Years

Abstract

In recent years, the Weihe River basin has experienced dramatic changes and a sharp decrease in runoff, which has constrained the sustainable development of the local society, economy, and ecology. Quantitative attribution analysis of runoff changes in the Weihe River basin can help to illustrate reasons for dramatic runoff changes and to understand its complex hydrological response. In this paper, the trends of hydrological elements in the Weihe River basin from 1970 to 2019 were systematically analyzed using the M–K analysis method, and the effects of meteorological elements and underlying surface changes on runoff were quantitatively analyzed using the Budyko theoretical framework. The results show that potential evapotranspiration and precipitation in the Weihe River basin have no significant change in 1970–2019; runoff depth has an abrupt change around 1990 and then decrease significantly. The study period is divided into the base period (1970–1989), PΙ (1990–2009), and PII (2010–2019). Compared with the base period, the elasticity coefficients (absolute values) of each element show an increasing trend in PΙ and PII. The sensitivity of runoff to these coefficients is increasing. The sensitivity of the precipitation is the highest (2.72~3.17), followed by that of the underlying surface parameter (−2.01~−2.35); the sensitivity of the potential evapotranspiration is the weakest (−1.72~−2.17). In the PΙ period, the runoff depth decreased significantly due to the combination effects of precipitation and underlying surface with the values of 6.18 mm and 13.92 mm, respectively. In the PII period, rainfall turned to an increasing trend, contributing to the increase in runoff by 11.80 mm; the further increase in underlying surface parameters was the main reason for the decrease in runoff by 22.19 mm. The significant increase in runoff by 8.54 mm because of the increased rainfall, compared with the PΙ periods. Overall, the increasing underlying surface parameter makes the largest contribution to the runoff changes while the precipitation change is also an important factor.