Land Use, Climate, and Socioeconomic Factors Determine the Variation in Hydrologic-Related Ecosystem Services in the Ecological Conservation Zone, Beijing, China

Abstract

The hydrologic-related ecosystem services of upstream ecological conservation zones have an important role in regulating the water scarcity and intense water conflicts of downstream regions. The joint effect of socioeconomic, land use, and climate factors on hydrologic-related ecosystem services is rarely analyzed; hence, its spatial heterogeneity and drivers remain unclear. We used the InVEST model and multivariate analysis to assess the interactions of land use, climate, and socioeconomic factors on hydrologic-related ecosystem services in the Beijing Ecological Conservation Development Zone (BECD) from 2000 to 2018. Our results show that land use shifts were mainly manifested by the conversion of cropland to forestland, grass land, and urban land, with conversion areas of 432 km2, 84.86 km2, and 162.57 km2, respectively. Water yield and water purification services exhibited significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity within the BECD. We also found that land use had the greatest impact on hydrologic-related ecosystem services, followed by climate and socioeconomic factors, with contributions of 44.29%, 7.09%, and 4.16%, respectively. Additionally, the contribution of the joint effect of land use and climate accounted for 13%. This study not only describes the variation in hydrologic-related ecosystem services within the BECD, but also offers a theoretical basis for policymakers and stakeholders to formulate land use policies.