A Novel Framework for Integrally Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water Yield Services from Both Local and Global Perspectives

Abstract

With global climate change and irrational human activities, regional water resource conflicts are becoming more and more pronounced. The availability of water resource in watersheds can be indicated by the water yield. Exploring the factors that influence the water yield is crucial in responding to climate change and protecting water resource. Previous research on the factors influencing the water yield has frequently adopted a macro-level perspective, which has failed to reflect the influencing mechanisms of changes at the local scale adequately. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework for integrally evaluating the impacts of climate change and human activities on water yield services from both local and global perspectives. Taking Ganzhou City, the source of the Ganjiang River, as an example, the results show the following: (1) Ganzhou City had the largest water yield of 1307.29 mm in 2016, and the lowest was only 375.32 mm in 2011. The spatial distribution pattern was mainly affected by the surface environment, and the high-value water yield regions in the study area were predominantly located in urban areas with flat terrain. (2) At the local scale, regions where human activities contribute more than 80% accounted for 25% of the area. In comparison, the impact of climate change accounted for 0.95%. The contribution rate of human activities to the water yield in Ganzhou City was significantly greater than that of climate change. (3) At the global scale, the simulation results of four scenarios show that climate change contributed (>98%) to the water yield, which is significantly higher than human activities (<2%). This study puts forward pioneering views on the research of water yield driving forces and provides a valuable theoretical basis for water resource protection and ecological environment construction.