Research on Parameter Regionalization of Distributed Hydrological Model Based on Machine Learning

Abstract

In the past decade, more than 300 people have died per year on average due to mountain torrents in China. Mountain torrents mostly occur in ungauged small and medium-sized catchments, so it is difficult to maintain high accuracy of flood prediction. In order to solve the problem of the low accuracy of flood simulation in the ungauged areas, this paper studies the influence of different methods on the parameter regionalization of distributed hydrological model parameters in hilly areas of Hunan Province. According to the terrain, landform, soil and land use characteristics of each catchment, we use Shortest Distance, Attribute Similarity, Support Vector Regression, Generative Adversarial Networks, Classification and Regression Tree and Random Forest methods to create parameter regionalization schemes. In total, 426 floods of 25 catchments are selected to calibrate the model parameters, and 136 floods of 8 catchments are used for verification. The results showed that the average values of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients of each scheme were 0.58, 0.64, 0.60, 0.66, 0.61 and 0.68, and the worst values were 0.27, 0.31, 0.25, 0.43, 0.35 and 0.59. The random forest model is the most stable solution and significantly outperforms other methods. Using the random forest model to regionalize parameters can improve the accuracy of flood simulation in ungauged areas, which is of great significance for flash flood forecasting and early warning.