Performance of a Bog Hydrological System Dynamics Simulation Model in an Ecological Restoration Context: Soomaa Case Study, Estonia

Abstract

We describe how a bog hydrology simulation model, developed in the System Dynamics environment, predicts the changes in the groundwater levels that result from drainage ditch closure and partial thinning of the surrounding forest stand. Five plots were selected in an area that was subjected to such ecological restoration, and the observed groundwater levels were compared with the simulated ones. Across the plots, the mean difference between the observed and simulated groundwater curves varied between 0.88 and 2.63 cm, and the RMSE between 0.28 and 0.71. Although the absolute difference between the predicted vs. observed values was greater in the plots with ditch closure, the curves co-varied more closely there over time. Therefore, hydrological System Dynamics models can be particularly useful for relative comparisons and risk-mapping of novel management scenarios.