PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on LightGBM Optimized by Adaptive Multi-Strategy Enhanced Sparrow Search Algorithm

Abstract

The atmospheric environment is of great importance to human health. However, its influencing factors are complex and variable. An efficient technique is required to more precisely estimate PM2.5 concentration values. In this paper, an enhanced Sparrow Search Algorithm (LASSA)-optimized Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) is proposed for PM2.5 concentration prediction. This approach can provide accurate predictions while also reducing potential losses resulting from unexpected events. LightGBM is regarded as an outstanding machine learning approach; however, it includes hyperparameters that must be optimally mixed in order to achieve the desired results. We update the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) and utilize it to identify the optimal combination of the most crucial parameters, using cross-validation to increase the reliability. Using limited air quality data and meteorological data as inputs, PM2.5 concentration values were predicted. The LASSA-LGB’s output was compared to normal LGB, SSA-LGB and ISSA-LGB. The findings demonstrate that LASSA-LGB outperforms the other models in terms of prediction accuracy. The RMSE and MAPE error indices were lowered from 3% to 16%. The concordance correlation coefficient is not less than 0.91, and the R2 reached 0.96. This indicates that the proposed model has potential advantages in the field of PM2.5 concentration prediction.