Modeling Future Streamflow for Adaptive Water Allocation under Climate Change for the Tanjung Karang Rice Irrigation Scheme Malaysia

Abstract

Spatial and temporal climatic variability influence on the productivity of agricultural watershed and irrigation systems. In a large irrigation system, the quantification and regulation of the flow at different locations of the channel is quite difficult manually, leading to a poor delivery of supply and demand. Water shortage is a crucial issue due to mismatch between available water and demand at intake point of Tanjung-Karang Irrigation Scheme. This study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on basin outflow for 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 to the baseline period (1976–2005) and used it as input hydrograph to simulate river discharge. A Hydrologic Engineering Corps Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model driven by projections from ten global climate models (GCMs) with three scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) used to simulate the outflow and the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model applied for hydraulic modeling. The projected seasonal streamflow showed a decreasing trend for future periods. The average available irrigation supply for historical period is 15.97 m3/s, which would decrease by 12%, 18%, and 21% under RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Projected irrigation supply showed oversupply and undersupply to the required supply during the growing season. Simulated discharge could therefore be incorporated into cropping practices to boost the sustainable distribution of water under the new realities of climate change in the future.