Multistage Sampling and Optimization for Forest Volume Inventory Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis

Abstract

It is important to achieve estimates at the minimum cost, with no greater uncertainty than that which is appropriate for the objectives of the inventory. The aim of this study was to estimate the forest volume efficiently and accurately by sampling and analyzing the existing forest survey data, which is also a technical challenge. In this work, we used the spatial statistics tools in the ArcGIS software to analyze spatial autocorrelations with the data from the sixth to ninth continuous forest inventories (CFI) of Sichuan Province from 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017. Based on the sampling framework of the CFI, we divided the sampling units into five groups using different methods to create the second-stage samples. Combined with the spatial autocorrelation analysis results, we selected certain samples from the collection of second-stage samples through stratified sampling to form the third-stage sampling units. We applied the sampling ratio, sampling accuracy, workload, and costs as the evaluation indexes for the sampling efficiency analysis. The main results are as follows: Before conversion, the forest volume density had a positively skewed distribution. There was substantial positive spatial autocorrelation, and its intensity was affected by the distance scale, especially at 187.3 km, where the spatial processes of clustering were most pronounced. At the significance level of α = 0.01, the high-volume stands were mainly concentrated in the Aba Prefecture, Garze Prefecture, and Liangshan Prefecture, while the low-volume stands were mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin region. The heterogeneous gatherings were staggered between the high-volume areas and low-volume areas, while the transition zone between the three prefecture regions and basin region was randomly distributed. With 95% reliability, the average estimation accuracy of the systematic sampling, random sampling, and cluster sampling in the second stage was 94.09%, which is less accurate than the CFI estimation accuracy. The mean correlation coefficients (R) between the estimated value of the forest volume and the observations of the systematic sampling, random sampling, and cluster sampling in the second stage were 0.95, 0.98, and 0.96, respectively. The relative differences (RD%) were −0.52, −0.39, and −0.36, respectively. The spatial stratified sampling in the third stage, which is based on spatial distribution pattern information, significantly reduced the sampling ratio to 1.68 per 10,000, compared with the average ratios of the CFI sampling and second-stage sampling, which were 13.73 per 10,000 and 2.75 per 10,000, respectively. With 95% reliability, the mean accuracy of the spatial stratified sampling in the third stage was 93.05%, the R was 0.94, and the RD% was −0.09. Spatial stratified sampling is more in line with the actual work conducted in annual surveys because it effectively reduces the sample size using prior spatial information, which can better meet the requirements of the annual output.