Correlating Groundwater Storage Change and Precipitation in Alabama, United States from 2000–2021 by Combining the Water Table Fluctuation Method and Statistical Analyses

Abstract

The complexity of aquifers poses a challenge for fully comprehending the impact of climate change on groundwater. In this study, we employed a suite of hydrological and statistical methods, including the water table fluctuation (WTF) method, wavelet analysis, the Hurst exponent, and temporal trend analysis, to assess groundwater storage (GWS) changes and their correlation with precipitation in Alabama, located in the southeastern United States. These approaches were used to evaluate the temporal variability of GWS as derived from well data and large-scale model estimates that incorporated satellite observations. The results unveiled a nuanced and regionally variable relationship between GWS changes and precipitation over the past two decades. While the Mann–Kendall test did not reveal any statistically significant overarching trends in GWS changes, Sen’s slope analysis indicated subtle regional variations, including a minor decline of −0.2 mm/year for GWS in southern Alabama and modest increases of 0.5 mm/year and 0.38 mm/year in the western and northern regions, respectively, from 2000–2021. Wavelet coherence analysis showed significant co-variation between GWS and precipitation in cycles ranging from 8 to 32 months, suggesting potential cyclic or intermittent influences. Furthermore, we detected strong persistence within the groundwater system using the Hurst exponent, indicating the substantial temporal memory impact. These findings are useful for developing effective groundwater management strategies in a changing climate.