Monitoring the Spatiotemporal Difference in Glacier Elevation on Bogda Mountain from 2000 to 2017

Abstract

The difference in glacier surface elevation is a sensitive indicator of climate change and is also important for disaster warning and water supply. In this paper, 25 glaciers on Bogda Mountain, in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, are selected as the study object as they are typical of glaciers in arid or semi-arid areas with importance for water supply. The Repeat Orbit Interferometry (ROI) method is used to survey the surface elevation of these glaciers using Sentinel-1A Radar data from 2017. Using data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the difference in the glacier surface elevation between 2000 and 2017 is obtained. A scheme to evaluate the accuracy of estimated variations in glacier surface elevation is proposed in this article. By considering the surfaces of lakes in the study region as ideal horizontal planes, the average standard deviation (SD) value of the lake elevation is taken as the error caused by the radar sensor and observing conditions. The SD of the lake elevation is used as an index to evaluate the error in the estimated variation of the glacier surface elevation, and the obtained SD values indicate that the result obtained using the ROI method is reliable. Additionally, the glacier surface elevation variation pattern and a Logarithmic Fitting Model (LFM) are used to reduce the error in high-altitude glacial accumulation areas to improve the estimation of the difference in the glacier surface elevation obtained using ROI. The average SD of the elevation of the 12 lakes is ±2.87 m, which shows that the obtained glacier surface elevations are reliable. This article concludes that, between 2000 and 2017, the surface elevation of glaciers on Bogda Mountain decreased by an average of 11.6 ± 1.3 m, corresponding to an average decrease rate of 0.68 m/a, and glaciers volume decreased by an average of 0.504 km3. Meanwhile, the surface elevations of the lakes increased by an average of 8.16 m. The decrease of glacier surface elevation leads to the expansion of glacial lakes. From the north slope clockwise to the south slope, the glacier elevation variation showed a decreasing trend, and the elevation variation gradually increased from the south slope to the north slope. With the increase of glacier altitude, the variation of glacier surface elevation gradually changed from negative to positive. The findings of this article suggest that the rate of glacier retreat on Bogda Mountain increased from 2000 to 2017.