Elevation Changes of A’nyemaqen Snow Mountain Revealed with Satellite Remote Sensing

Abstract

A’nyemaqen Snow Mountain (ASM) is the largest glacier area in the Yellow River source area and has been experiencing significant ablation in recent years. To investigate spatial–temporal elevation changes in ASM, a 21–year Digital Elevation Model (DEM) time series was obtained using the MicMac ASTER (MMASTER) algorithm and ASTER L1A V003 data. It covers the period from January 2002 to January 2023. The mean elevation of ASM decreased by −7.88 ± 3.37 m during this period, with highly spatial variation. The elevation decrease occurred mainly in the lower elevations and opposite in the higher elevations. The corresponding elevation decrease was −12.99 ± 11.29 and −4.45 ± 11.36 m at the southern Yehelong Glacier and the northern Weigeledangxiong Glacier, respectively. Moreover, there exists a temporal variation in ASM. The maximum elevation was observed in February for both ASM and the southern Yehelong Glacier but March for Weigeledangxiong Glacier, with about 1 month lagged. With the elevation time series and climate data from ERA5 datasets, we applied the random forest technique and found that the temperature is the main factor to elevation change in ASM. Furthermore, the response of elevation changes to temperature appeared with a lag and varied with the location. Based on the elevation time series, the ARIMA model was further used to forecast the elevation changes in the next 5 years. All regions will experience the elevation decrease, with a mean decline −1.74 ± 0.39 m and a corresponding rate −0.35 ± 0.08 m/a in ASM. This is similar to that of −0.38 ± 0.16 m/a between 2002 and 2003, showing its stability in the near future.