Recent Seasonal Spatiotemporal Variations in Alpine Glacier Surface Elevation in the Pamir

Abstract

Climate change can lead to seasonal surface elevation variations in alpine glaciers. This study first uses DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of Pamir glaciers to develop a denoising model for laser altimetry of ICESat-2 footprints, which reduces the standard deviation of the differences between ICESat-2 footprints and corresponding datum DEM from 13.9 to 3.6 m. Second, the study constructs a calibration processing model for solving the problem that laser footprints obtained at different times have inconsistent plane positions. We calculates plane position and elevation differences between the two laser footprints in the local area of 0.05 × 0.05° from 2018 to 2021. The elevations constructed by laser footprints shows a strong correlation with the datum elevation over the different periods, and effectively preserve the time-series variation information of glacier surface elevation (GSE). Based on these two models, the spatiotemporal variations of the surface elevation of the Pamir glaciers is established as a function of seasons. There are three main conclusions: (1) The GSE in the Pamir increased slightly from 2018 to 2021 at an average rate of +0.02 ± 0.01 m/year. The time series with elevation increase was located exactly on the glacial ablation zone, and the time series with elevation decrease occurred on the glacial accumulation zone. Both observations demonstrate the surge state of the glacier. (2) The Pamir eastern (Zone I) and northwestern (Zone III) regions had large glacier accumulation areas. GSE in these two regions has increased in recent years at yearly rates of +0.25 ± 0.13 and +0.06 ± 0.04 m/year, respectively. In contrast, the GSE of small glaciers in Zones II and IV has decreased at a yearly rate of −0.96 ± 0.37 and −0.24 ± 0.18 m/year, respectively. Climate was the primary factor influencing the increase in GSE in Zones I and III. The westerly circulation had been reinforced in recent years, and precipitation had increased dramatically at a rate of +0.99 mm/year in the northwestern section of the Pamir; this was the primary cause of the increase in GSE. (3) The increased precipitation and decreased temperature were both important factors causing an overall +0.02 ± 0.01 m/year variation of GSE in this region. The GSE in the four sub-regions showed different variation trends because of variations in temperature and precipitation. The external causes that affected the increase in GSE in the region included an average yearly temperature decrease at the rate of 0.54 ± 0.36 °C/year and a total yearly precipitation increase of 0.46 ± 0.29 mm/year in the study area from 2018 to 2021.