Spatio–Temporal Heterogeneity of Urban Expansion and Population Growth in China

Abstract

Urbanization has become one of the hot issues of global sustainable development, and is mainly characterized by urban population growth and construction land expansion. However, the inharmonious development of urban expansion and population migration has brought serious challenges to urban planning and management. China is the largest developing country in the world, and the urbanization process has accelerated over the past decades. In this paper, decoupling analysis was used to demonstrate the spatio–temporal relationship between urban expansion and population growth in 321 prefecture–level cities in China, providing a reference basis for sustainable development. The results showed that China’s population, total GDP, and construction land area increased from 1990 to 2018. The rate of construction land expansion was larger in the eastern coastal and western regions than in the northeastern and central regions, but the population growth rate was not significantly different among these regions. According to the decoupling analysis, the relationships of population–GDP, construction land–GDP, and population–construction land were mainly weak decoupling, indicating that both the population growth and the construction land expansion lagged behind the economic development, and the population growth lagged behind construction land expansion. In addition, the results were analyzed based on China’s four economic regions. Population and construction land area changes in the northeastern provinces experienced a shift from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling, then presented a strong decoupling. The decoupling state of population–construction land in the west region was relatively stable. The relationship between population and construction land in the central regions was mainly weak decoupling, and some cities developed into strong decoupling. The relationship between population and construction land in the east region experienced a shift from strong decoupling to weak decoupling, then demonstrated expansive negative decoupling, mainly manifested in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Therefore, the northeast region should take measures to promote regional population growth while reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land, the west region should focus on ecological protection and moderately attract population, the central region should control their population development and reasonably allocate land, and the east region should pay attention to and solve the citizenship problem of migrant workers in second–tier and third–tier cities when promoting new urbanization.