Risk Evaluation of Navigation Environment Based on Dynamic Weight Model and Its Application

Abstract

In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the safety risk of ship navigation, to and better solve the problems of the poor sensitivity of static evaluation and insufficient ability to grasp the overall dynamic situation, in this paper, representative safety evaluation indexes for ship navigation are screened and the initial weight of each index is confirmed in combination with the improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP), in order to learn the changes of navigation environment and accident samples in the waters in the jurisdiction. Finally, the dynamic risk evaluation is carried out by constructing a dynamic weight evaluation model for the safety risk of the navigation environment based on the weight fusion of subjective and objective impact factors. The waters under the jurisdiction of Sanya, China were selected for the study, and the navigation risk of the waters in the jurisdiction was calculated by using the dynamic weight evaluation model based on navigation risk. The calculation results are highly consistent with the results based on the statistics of historical accidents and the analysis of the characteristics of the navigation environment in the jurisdiction. The navigation risk in this water area is the greatest from May to September every year. The dynamic weight evaluation model can not only overcome the subjective evaluation distortion in the traditional risk evaluation theory of navigation environment in practical applications, but can also provide a scientific theoretical basis for the dynamic evaluation and early warning of the risk of ship navigation environments through continuous sample learning.