Risk Coupling Characteristics of Maritime Accidents in Chinese Inland and Coastal Waters Based on N-K Model

Abstract

The causes of maritime accidents are complex, mostly due to the coupling of four types of factors: human-ship-environmental-management. To effectively analyze the causes of maritime accidents in China, and reveal the risk coupling characteristics of accidents, this paper establishes the N-K model of maritime accident, and calculates and analyzes the four types of coupling of risk factors affecting safety in maritime traffic. This paper collects 922 maritime accidents that occurred in China from 2000 to 2020, and analyzes the location, type, and level of accidents and uses the trigger principle to describe the process of accidents. For marine and inland river accidents, this paper calculates the four types of coupling values of risk factors (single-factor coupling, two-factor coupling, three-factor coupling, four-factor coupling) for comparison and analysis. In addition, this paper calculates the coupling values of six typical maritime accidents of collision, sinking, contact, fire/explosion, stranding, grounding. According to the coupling values and the frequency of sub-factors, this paper analyzes the coupling characteristics of maritime accidents. The results show that in maritime accidents, as the number of risk factors participating in the coupling increases, the coupling value increases, and the multi-factor coupling is more likely to cause accidents. The overall situation of risk coupling causes of maritime accidents is basically consistent with inland river accidents, but they have their own characteristics in the specific degree of risk coupling and the dominant risk elements. In different types of maritime accidents, the risk coupling has different characteristics, and the dominant risk factors are also different.