A New Marine Disaster Assessment Model Combining Bayesian Network with Information Diffusion

Abstract

There are two challenges in the comprehensive marine hazard assessment. The influencing mechanism of marine disaster is uncertain and disaster data are sparse. Aiming at the uncertain knowledge and small sample in assessment modeling, we combine the information diffusion algorithm and Bayesian network to propose a novel assessment model. The information diffusion algorithm is adopted to expand associated samples between disaster losses and environmental conditions. Then the expanded data sets are used to build the BN-based assessment model through structural learning, parameter learning and probabilistic reasoning. The proposed model is applied to the hazard assessment of marine disasters in Shanghai. Experimental comparison results show that it is capable of dealing with uncertainty effectively and achieving more accuracy risk assessment under the small sample condition.