Structure Simulation and Equilibrium Evaluation Analysis of Regional Water Resources, Society, Economy and Ecological Environment Complex System

Abstract

Currently, the implementation of water resource spatial equilibrium strategy is a fundamental policy of water resource integrated management in China; it is also a considerable challenge to explore the relationship structure features of water resources, society, economy and ecological environment (WSEE) complex system. For this purpose, firstly, we applied information entropy, ordered degree and connection number coupling method to reveal the membership characteristics between different evaluation indicators and grade criterion. Secondly, the system dynamics approach was introduced to describe the relationship features among different equilibrium subsystems. Finally, the ordered degree, connection number, information entropy and system dynamics integrated model was established to conduct relationship structure simulation and evolution trend evaluation of the WSEE system. The application results in Hefei city, Anhui Province, China, demonstrated that: (1) the variation of overall equilibrium conditions of WSEE system in Hefei city, 2020–2029 was higher compared to that of 2010–2019, though the increasing rate of ordered degree and connection number entropy (ODCNE) became slower after 2019; and (2) the annual ODCNE value from 2020 to 2029 of WSEE system under dry year scenarios increased about 0.0812, which indicated that the construction of Yangtze-Huaihe Diversion (YHD) project could play significant positive role in mitigating the equilibrium situation of WSEE system in Hefei city in the future. On the whole, this study is capable of providing the guidance basis for constructing a theoretical framework of structure simulation and equilibrium evaluation analysis of WSEE complex system.