Short-Term/Range Extreme-Value Probability Distributions of Upper Bounded Space-Time Maximum Ocean Waves

Abstract

There is general consensus that accurate model predictions of extreme wave events during marine storms can substantially contribute to avoiding or minimizing human losses and material damage. Reliable wave forecasts and hindcasts, together with statistical analysis of extreme conditions, are then of utmost importance for monitoring marine areas. In this study, we perform an analysis of the limitations of the available short-term/range extreme-value distributions suitable for space-time maximum wave and crest heights. In particular, we propose an improvement of the theoretical distributions by including upper bounds on the maximum heights that waves may reach. The modification of the space-time probability distributions and its impact for extreme-value assessment is discussed in the paper. We show that unbounded space-time distributions are still effective provided that the surface area included in the analysis has sides smaller than O(102 m). For wider surfaces, the use of the bounded distributions is consistent with the expected saturation of maximum heights that ocean waves attain.