Exploring the Drivers of Soil Conservation Variation in the Source of Yellow River under Diverse Development Scenarios from a Geospatial Perspective

Abstract

Soil conservation (SC) plays a vital role in preventing soil erosion and ensuring ecological security. While current research on SC primarily focuses on historical spatiotemporal variations, there remains a dearth of sufficient simulation research exploring future development scenarios. In this study, simulations were applied to the source of Yellow River (SYR), a representative ecologically fragile area. Satellite remote sensing and product data, including precipitation, soil, land use/cover, DEM, and SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI, were utilized. The historical and future evolutionary trends of SC in the SYR were quantitatively assessed using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and trend analysis method, and the geographical detector was employed to explore the forces driving spatial differentiations in SC. The results demonstrated that: (1) 2000–2020, the spatial heterogeneity of SC in the SYR was characterized by the distribution of “gradually decreasing from Southeast to Northwest”, demonstrated a trend of “increasing, decreasing, and then increasing”. (2) Under the diverse development scenarios, the trend of SC change in the SYR was predominantly rising, and the natural change scenario (NCS) > ecological conservation scenario (ECS) > economic expansion scenario (EES). (3) Slope was the most important single driver affecting the spatiotemporal differentiation of SC, and the interaction of slope with average annual precipitation, and NDVI on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of SC had the strongest explanatory ability. The results can serve as a scientific basis for regional SC and ecological protection and construction of the SYR.