A Novel Probabilistic Power Flow Algorithm Based on Principal Component Analysis and High-Dimensional Model Representation Techniques

Abstract

Because the penetration level of renewable energy sources has increased rapidly in recent years, uncertainty in power system operation is gradually increasing. As an efficient tool for power system analysis under uncertainty, probabilistic power flow (PPF) is becoming increasingly important. The point-estimate method (PEM) is a well-known PPF algorithm. However, two significant defects limit the practical use of this method. One is that the PEM struggles to estimate high-order moments accurately; this defect makes it difficult for the PEM to describe the distribution of non-Gaussian output random variables (ORVs). The other is that the calculation burden is strongly related to the scale of input random variables (IRVs), which makes the PEM difficult to use in large-scale power systems. A novel approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) and high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) is proposed here to overcome the defects of the traditional PEM. PCA is applied to decrease the dimension scale of IRVs and eliminate correlations. HDMR is applied to estimate the moments of ORVs. Because HDMR considers the cooperative effects of IRVs, it has a significantly smaller estimation error for high-order moments in particular. Case studies show that the proposed method can achieve a better performance in terms of accuracy and efficiency than traditional PEM.