Probabilistic Power Flow Method for Hybrid AC/DC Grids Considering Correlation among Uncertainty Variables

Abstract

For a new power system using high-penetration renewable energy, the traditional deterministic power flow analysis method cannot accurately represent the stochastic characteristics of each state variable. The aggregation of renewable energy with different meteorological characteristics in the AC/DC interconnected grid significantly increases the difficulty of establishing a steady-state model. Therefore, this study proposes an improved Latin hypercube sampling algorithm using the van der Waerden scores and diffusion kernel density estimation to overcome the limitations of a priori assumption on probability distributions in uncertainty modeling and to retain the correlations among random variables in the sampling data. Interconnected grids are constructed with IEEE 9-bus and IEEE 14-bus and modified with IEEE 57-bus to describe common application cases of aggregated renewable energy. On this basis, the approximation errors of the proposed probabilistic power flow algorithm to the statistical characteristics of the power parameters are evaluated by setting the Nataf algorithm and the Latin hypercube algorithm using adaptive kernel density estimation as the control group. The results show that the improved Latin hypercube sampling algorithm can exhibit high computational accuracy and strong adaptability, both in severe operating scenarios with large amplitude of load fluctuations and with nonlinear power balance equations incorporating high dimensional random variables.