Two Strategies for Avoiding Overfitting Long-Term Forecasting Models: Downsampling Predictor Fields and Shrinking Coefficients

Author:

He Ranran1,Chen Yuanfang2,Liu Yong3,Pan Zhengwei4,Huang Qin5

Affiliation:

1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Anhui Univ. of Finance & Economics, Bengbu 233030, Anhui, China.

2. Professor, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China (corresponding author).

3. Professor, State Key Lab of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China.

4. Associate Professor, College of Civil Engineering, Bengbu Univ., Bengbu 233030, Anhui, China.

5. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China.

Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

Subject

General Environmental Science,Water Science and Technology,Civil and Structural Engineering,Environmental Chemistry

Reference36 articles.

1. Artificial Skill due to Predictor Screening

2. Statistical Seasonal Prediction Based on Regularized Regression

3. Bootstrap confidence intervals

4. Efron, B. 1979. “Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife.” In Breakthroughs in statistics, 565–568. New York, NY: Springer.

5. Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation

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