Tropical Cyclone Intensity Probabilistic Forecasting System Based on Deep Learning

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the extreme disasters that have the most significant impact on human beings. Unfortunately, intensity forecasting of TC has been a difficult and bottleneck in weather forecasting. Recently, deep learning-based intensity forecasting of TC has shown the potential to surpass traditional methods. However, due to the Earth system’s complexity, nonlinearity, and chaotic effects, there is inherent uncertainty in weather forecasting. Besides, previous studies have not quantified the uncertainty, which is necessary for decision-making and risk assessment. This study proposes an intelligent system based on deep learning, PTCIF, to quantify this uncertainty based on multimodal meteorological data, which, to our knowledge, is the first study to assess the uncertainty of TC based on a deep learning approach. In this study, probabilistic forecasts are made for the intensity of 6–24 hours. Experimental results show that our proposed method is comparable to the forecast performance of weather forecast centers in terms of deterministic forecasts. Moreover, reliable prediction intervals and probabilistic forecasts can be obtained, which is vital for disaster warning and is expected to be a complement to operational models.