Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center

Abstract

AbstractIt has been well documented that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made significant improvements in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting during the past half century. In contrast, NHC’s TC intensity forecast errors changed little from the 1970s to the early 2000s. Recently, however, there has been a notable decrease in TC intensity forecast error and an increase in intensity forecast skill. This study documents these trends and discusses the advancements in TC intensity guidance that have led to the improvements in NHC’s intensity forecasts in the Atlantic basin. We conclude with a brief projection of future capabilities.