Predicting Asthma Outcome Using Partial Least Square Regression and Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

The long-term solution to the asthma epidemic is believed to be prevention and not treatment of the established disease. Most cases of asthma begin during the first years of life; thus the early determination of which young children will have asthma later in their life counts as an important priority. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been already utilized in medicine in order to improve the performance of the clinical decision-making tools. In this study, a new computational intelligence technique for the prediction of persistent asthma in children is presented. By employing partial least square regression, 9 out of 48 prognostic factors correlated to the persistent asthma have been chosen. Multilayer perceptron and probabilistic neural networks topologies have been investigated in order to obtain the best prediction accuracy. Based on the results, it is shown that the proposed system is able to predict the asthma outcome with a success of 96.77%. The ANN, with which these high rates of reliability were obtained, will help the doctors to identify which of the young patients are at a high risk of asthma disease progression. Moreover, this may lead to better treatment opportunities and hopefully better disease outcomes in adulthood.