Parking Volume Forecast of Railway Station Garages Based on Passenger Behaviour Analysis Using the LSTM Network

Abstract

Parking volume forecast is an indispensable part of the parking guidance and information system (PGIS), which is an important component of the intelligent transportation system (ITS). The parking volume forecast of railway stations’ garages will provide information support for garages’ management and will also be a great convenience for car passengers. Parking garages of railway stations serve passengers to arrive or depart stations by car, and their arrival or departure behaviours definitely affect parking volumes. The study results showed that different parking behaviours have different characteristics of the parking duration category. Therefore, passenger behaviour analysis based on parking duration category analysis and time series similarity measures was introduced into the forecast model in this research. Also, a novel parking volume forecast model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed. In this paper, the parking volume data of public parking garages of Hongqiao Railway Station in Shanghai of China is used to verify the model, and the proposed model makes it possible for the accurate and real-time prediction of parking volumes which are divided into different parking duration categories. Compared with the ungrouped data model and the conventional forecast model, the proposed parking volume forecast model based on passenger behaviours with the LSTM network achieves a better performance and provides more accurate prediction.