Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

Author:

Kim Byung Sik1,Chang In Gi1,Sung Jang Hyun2,Han Hae Jin3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention, School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University, 345 Jungang-ro, Samcheck-si, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea

2. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Geum River Flood Control Office, No. 551, Gongju-si, Chungcheongnam-do, Republic of Korea

3. Korea Environment Institute, 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si, Republic of Korea

Abstract

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

Funder

Kangwon National University

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Pollution,Geophysics

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