Dietary Choices as Prevention Measure: Assessment of Societal Effects Related to Life Expectancy in Germany

Abstract

Public health determines economic stability and growth. Inappropriate dietary behaviour induces a huge health burden across all age groups and geographical regions every year. Nutrition is one major driver to overcome non-communicable diseases and related costs. According to the World Health Organization, there is a gap in research considering the cost-effectiveness of policy nutrition interventions. The present modelling study is the first attempt to evaluate a potential nationwide shift towards healthy nutrition from a societal perspective. The scenario modelling builds on most recent findings from the research field and status quo food consumption according to national nutrition survey data. Potential age- and gender-specific gains in life expectancy due to diet improvement are evaluated for the 2019 population in Germany addressing different scenarios (optimal diet and feasible diet). Drawing on a human capital approach, the resulting health gains are translated into a societal value building on related gains in unpaid work productivity. The monetary evaluation of productivity increase is implemented according to the specialist’s approach. The potential gain in unpaid work activities related to improved nutrition, is estimated at € 5,046bn for the 2019 German population assuming an optimal diet scenario. In case of the more feasible diet scenario, additional life expectancy is lower but still valuable. Health gains are less for women as compared to men, but the societal value is higher for females due to higher societal contribution in terms of unpaid activities across all age groups. The potential health gains are highest for young age groups, but the monetary societal value for these individuals is lower due to discounting of future benefits. The study illustrates the societal value of nutrition as one dimension of preventing non-communicable diseases. Thereby, it provides valuable insights for policy decision makers to develop interventions on the population level that support transformation of the health care systems and economic structures towards a sustainable direction.