Predicting construction productivity using situation-based simulation models

Abstract

Construction site operations are very complex, and they involve complicated relationships among numerous tasks, factors, obstacles, risks, and uncertainties, or triggering situations that affect productivity. To improve the performance of construction operations, one needs to understand the impact these triggering situations have on productivity. The paper discusses a recently developed technique, called situation-based simulation modeling, that is used to model the triggering situations in construction to predict productivity. This tool can model the cause-and-effect relationships among various triggering situations, which previous construction models have ignored. Construction operations that were directly observed and recorded for more than 3500 person-hours served as the data source for the development of the model. The simulation results are not only able to accurately predict productivity relative to the actual productivity observed at the site, but also provide the basis for recommendations to mitigate problematic situations to improve productivity.Key words: construction, productivity, modeling, simulation, situation-modeling.