Affiliation:
1. Department of Finance and Financial and Economic Security, Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design, Kyiv, Ukraine
2. Department of Economic Cybernetics, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine
Abstract
Money laundering has become a global threat to the international stability and security, leading both to economic
and social upheavals, and to an increase in terrorist threats. Therefore, an objective necessity arises for a more detailed study of
the money laundering within the scope of its developmental patterns and time-dependent behaviour. The study mission is the
development of a theoretical framework and methodological support for modelling the cyclic component of the money laundering risk. The correlation and regression are used for isolating the cyclic component. In turn, the Fourier harmonic analysis
allows specifying the cyclic component. Additionally, we carried out a decomposition of time series, analysis of its volatility and
persistence using the Hurst exponent. We determined the peaks, downturns and duration of the money laundering cycles in
the developed economies and economies in transition, and established the possibility of predicting this process in the medium
term. We proved the internationalization of the money laundering and the similarity of behaviour of trends that characterize
it both for developed economies among themselves and between groups of countries. The further scientific research is needed
within the framework of the imposition of trends in the development of the money laundering processes of some countries on
others and the formation of international medium-term anti-fraud strategies.
Publisher
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
Cited by
14 articles.
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