A novel prognostic index for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma combined baseline metabolic tumour volume with clinical and pathological risk factors

Abstract

Objectives This study aimed to develop a novel prognostic index integrating baseline metabolic tumour volume (MTV) along with clinical and pathological parameters for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Methods This prospective trial enrolled 289 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL. The predictive value of novel prognostic index was compared with Ann Arbor staging and National Comprehensive Cancer Network International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI). We used the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration curve to determine its predictive capacity. Results Multivariate analysis revealed high MTV (>191 cm3), Ann Arbor stage (III–IV) and MYC/BCL2 double expression lymphoma (DEL) to be independently associated with inferior progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Ann Arbor stage and DEL could be stratified by MTV. Our index, combining MTV with Ann Arbor stage and DEL status, identified four prognostic groups: group 1 (no risk factors,), group 2 (one risk factor), group 3 (two risk factors), and group 4 (three risk factors). The 2-year PFS rates were 85.5, 73.9, 53.6, and 13.9%; 2-year OS rates were 94.6, 87.0, 67.5, and 24.2%, respectively. The C-index values of the novel index were 0.697 and 0.753 for PFS and OS prediction, which was superior to Ann Arbor stage and NCCN-IPI. Conclusion The novel index including tumour burden and clinicopathological features may help predict outcome of DLBCL (clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02928861).