COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya

Published:2021-11-19 Issue:6570 Volume:374 Page:989-994
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Brand Samuel P. C.¹²³^ORCID,Ojal John¹⁴^ORCID,Aziza Rabia²³^ORCID,Were Vincent⁵^ORCID,Okiro Emelda A.⁶⁷^ORCID,Kombe Ivy K¹^ORCID,Mburu Caroline¹^ORCID,Ogero Morris¹^ORCID,Agweyu Ambrose¹⁷^ORCID,Warimwe George M.¹⁷^ORCID,Nyagwange James¹^ORCID,Karanja Henry¹^ORCID,Gitonga John N.¹,Mugo Daisy¹^ORCID,Uyoga Sophie¹^ORCID,Adetifa Ifedayo M. O.¹⁸^ORCID,Scott J. Anthony G.¹⁸,Otieno Edward¹^ORCID,Murunga Nickson¹,Otiende Mark¹^ORCID,Ochola-Oyier Lynette I.¹^ORCID,Agoti Charles N.¹,Githinji George¹,Kasera Kadondi⁹^ORCID,Amoth Patrick⁹^ORCID,Mwangangi Mercy⁹,Aman Rashid⁹,Ng’ang’a Wangari¹⁰^ORCID,Tsofa Benjamin¹^ORCID,Bejon Philip¹⁷,Keeling Matt. J.²³¹¹^ORCID,Nokes D. James¹²³^ORCID,Barasa Edwine⁵⁷^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)–Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.

2. The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.

3. School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.

4. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK.

5. Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI–Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.

6. Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute–Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.

7. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

8. Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

9. Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya.

10. Presidential Policy and Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya.

11. Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2: To have or to have not In June 2021, official records in Kenya showed fewer than 4000 confirmed deaths and 180,000 confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These data tend to reflect the economically advantaged strata of society who can afford smartphones and have access to medical attention and tests. Brand et al . developed an epidemiological model to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Kenya, the population of which was split into two socioeconomic strata. The authors predicted that 75% of the Kenyan population (about 39 million people) had been exposed to the virus by June 2021. If a fourth wave of infection is observed in the future, it would likely be driven by a variant with enhanced transmissibility or natural immune escape. —CA

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference48 articles.

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