Age-structured Impact of Mitigation Strategies on COVID-19 Severity and Deaths in Kenya

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: COVID-19, a coronavirus disease 2019, is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There have been a lot of attempts to model this pandemic from a global perspective. The Novel Coronavirus is still spreading quickly in several countries and the peak has not yet been reached in many countries. We developed age-structured model for describing the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya under different non-pharmaceutical interventions. The first case in Kenya was identified in March 13, 2020 with the pandemic increasing to 465 confirmed cases by end of 3rd May, 2020. We fitted an age-structured deterministic mathematical model in Kenyan context.Methods: We model the COVID-19 situation in Kenya using Age-structured Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered compartmental model. These compartments follow a cascade of the disease from the Susceptible to Exposed individuals who in return are either symptomatic or asymptomatic. The symptomatic depict mild signs, which can develop to severe symptoms warranting hospitalization or can otherwise recover. The severe cases can recover with some developing critical condition. The critical are admitted at intensive care units. The resulting age-dependent ordinary differential equations from the model are solved using fourth order Runge-Kutta methods. We controlled for school closure, social distancing and lockdown in terms of movement restrictionsResults: The model shows varying epidemic peak by age-structure and the mitigation scenarios. The peak dates for unmitigated (UM), the 45% NPI (M45) and School closure-curfew-partial lockdown NPI (SCL) are May 21st, October 17th and December 13th 2020, respectively. Their respective cumulative infections peaks are 43M, 24M and 25M. The daily reported severe cases, critical cases and death proportionately increased with age. Conclusions: The cumulative number of infections reduces greatly with introduction of school closure, social distancing and restricted movement in highly affected counties. The degree of COVID-19 severity increases with age. However, it is not immediately clear when these restrictions can be lifted.